Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 1.974046 2.090026 2.211833 2.349744 2.502099 2.665898 2.856161
2025-10-19 1.822493 1.985429 2.164816 2.378623 2.628744 2.914933 3.271395
2025-10-26 1.707981 1.895175 2.107726 2.369998 2.689344 3.071660 3.573809
2025-11-02 1.619146 1.822279 2.058549 2.358280 2.735416 3.204516 3.849972
2025-11-09 1.535760 1.747736 1.999026 2.324995 2.746351 3.287606 4.063036
2025-11-16 1.464138 1.681799 1.944002 2.290680 2.749460 3.355928 4.257503
2025-11-23 1.417336 1.642848 1.918811 2.290667 2.794583 3.480694 4.541373
2025-11-30 1.383930 1.618155 1.909177 2.308685 2.863041 3.640882 4.893680
2025-12-07 1.333024 1.568545 1.864454 2.276306 2.858041 3.693308 5.082585
2025-12-14 1.281046 1.515217 1.812133 2.230129 2.829406 3.706872 5.207685
2025-12-21 1.238837 1.472769 1.772071 2.198233 2.818428 3.744799 5.375895
2025-12-28 1.225353 1.467052 1.780197 2.233239 2.906744 3.942180 5.845496
2026-01-04 1.209949 1.458719 1.785060 2.264801 2.993618 4.148135 6.370388
2026-01-11 1.193627 1.448432 1.786622 2.291398 3.074438 4.351938 6.928744
2026-01-18 1.166782 1.422807 1.765637 2.283308 3.099433 4.462143 7.317070
2026-01-25 1.140727 1.397286 1.743635 2.272273 3.118387 4.562657 7.702472
2026-02-01 1.109762 1.364013 1.709388 2.240918 3.101722 4.596794 7.945372
2026-02-08 1.080209 1.331821 1.675551 2.208577 3.081219 4.621613 8.171006
2026-02-15 1.062157 1.315041 1.663158 2.208565 3.114827 4.750902 8.675629
2026-02-22 1.050129 1.306250 1.661863 2.225549 3.178255 4.943775 9.388786
2026-03-01 1.024905 1.278145 1.631422 2.195024 3.156670 4.965317 9.648449
2026-03-08 0.997078 1.245705 1.593713 2.151466 3.109631 4.931126 9.745859
2026-03-15 0.974228 1.219840 1.565026 2.121360 3.085073 4.941450 9.976827